Arcila Calderón, C., Sánchez Holgado, P., Gómez, J. et al. (2024). From online hate speech to offline hate crime: the role of inflammatory language in forecasting violence against migrant and LGBT communities. Humanities and Social Sciences Communicati
Country
Spain
Title
Year
Publication type
Geographical coverage
National
Area/location of interest
Type of Institution
Academic/research institution
Institution
Thematic focus
Hate speech: Public incitement to hatred or violence
Groups
LGBTIQ people
Key findings
Methodology (Qualitative/Quantitative and exact type used, questionnaires etc)
Qualitative research
Sample details and representativeness
The dataset for this preregistered study included social media posts from X (previously called Twitter) and Facebook and internal police records of hate crimes reported in Spain between 2016 and 2018. After conducting preliminary data analysis to check the moderate temporal correlation, we used time series analysis to develop computational models (VAR, GLMNet, and XGBTree) to predict four time periods of these rare events on a daily and weekly basis. Forty-eight models were run to forecast two types of offline hate crimes, those against migrants and those against the LGBT community.